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Something Strange Is Going On With Nonfarm Payrolls
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2015 17:30 -0400
Let's start with the basics: why is there a majority consensus that the Fed will hike rates after it removes its "patient" language tomorrow? One simple reason: non-farm payrolls. As reported earlier in the month, following the report of March's expectations smashing 295,000 jobs added, there have now been a 13 consecutive months of 200K+ payroll months...
... something which together with the 5.5% unemployment rate, is for the Fed is a clear indication that the slack in the labor is about to disappear and wages are set to surge.
Sadly, as we showed before, wages are not only not rising, but for 80% of the population they are once again sliding.
*****************Chart for the simpletons,
Falling wages aside (a critical topic as it singlehandedly refutes the Fed's bedrock thesis of no slack in a labor force in which there are 93 million Americans who no longer participate in the job market) going back to the original topic of which economic factors are prompting the Fed to assume there is an economic recovery, without exaggeration, all alone.
Is there nothing else that can validate the Fed's rate hike hypothesis? Well... no.
Below is a selection of the economic data points that have missed expectations in just the past month.
MISSES
Personal Spending
Construction Spending
ISM New York
Factory Orders
Ward's Domestic Vehicle Sales
ADP Employment
Challenger Job Cuts
Initial Jobless Claims
Nonfarm Productivity
Trade Balance
Unemployment Rate
Labor Market Conditions Index
NFIB Small Business Optimism
Wholesale Inventories
Wholesale Sales
IBD Economic Optimism
Mortgage Apps
Retail Sales
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Business Inventories
UMich Consumer Sentiment
Empire Manufacturing
NAHB Homebuilder Confidence
Housing Starts
Building Permits
PPI
Industrial Production
Capacity Utilization
Manufacturing Production
Dallas Fed
Chicago Fed NAI
Existing Home Sales
Consumer Confidence
Richmond Fed
Personal Consumption
ISM Milwaukee
Chicago PMI
Pending Home Sales
Personal Income
Personal Spending
Construction Spending
ISM Manufacturing
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
moreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/something-strange-going-nonfarm-payrolls
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
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