March 25, 2016
Insiders to Trump: No majority, no nomination
Republicans say it's 1,237 delegates or bust for Donald Trump.
By Steven Shepard
Politico.com
A majority of Republican insiders say Donald Trump should not get the GOP presidential nomination if he falls short of winning a majority of delegates — even if Trump amasses more than any of his opponents.
That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of strategists, activists and operatives in seven key swing states. Roughly 6-in-10 Republicans said the party should nominate another candidate if Trump finishes with a plurality, rather than the required 1,237-delegate majority necessary to claim the party nomination.
“Rules is rules. You have to get a majority,” said a Virginia Republican who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “That's the problem with our country: No one ever wins anymore.”
The question is central to the GOP calculus before the Cleveland convention: Should the party award the nomination to the candidate who won the most delegates in total — as Trump himself has advocated — or stick to the rule that a candidate must win at least 1,237 delegates to be the nominee?
The majority of insiders who want the party to choose someone else if Trump only wins a plurality of delegates said they are motivated by questions of electability, Trump’s capricious campaign style and personality.
“I'm firmly in the ‘Never Trump’ camp,” said a New Hampshire Republican. “The GOP gets killed if he's the nominee. We probably get killed if he doesn't support a different nominee anyway. So if it makes no difference to the eventual outcome, my conscience will be clear going down with a responsible nominee instead.”
“Without a majority, it is fair game for anyone to try to garner the nomination,” added another New Hampshire Republican. “Trump is not a real Republican, does not believe in Republican values, or any values at all for that matter, and is for the most part an immoral, dishonest, vain, narcissist who would endanger this country. Other than that, hey, he'd be fine...”
That harsh assessment was echoed by an Iowa Republican who cited Trump’s poor standing in a general election, his intemperate campaign rhetoric and sometimes-liberal views on issues.
“The GOP would be crazy to aid in the hostile takeover of our party by a candidate who has never been able to espouse a single consistently conservative view,” the Iowa Republican said. “Donald Trump admires Putin while attacking the last Republican president. He doesn't deserve the nomination even if he were to win more than 1,237 delegates. Hillary would slaughter him in the general election. #NeverTrump”
But many Republicans are not on board with the stop-Trump-at-any-cost crowd: 42 percent said Trump should be the nominee if he wins the most delegates on the first ballot without capturing a majority.
They fear what would happen if party insiders deny Trump on the convention floor. One Florida Republican called it “political suicide” to wrest the nomination from Trump’s hands.
“It would be a mistake for the Republican Party to blatantly ignore the millions of voters who participated in the primary process to only have party leaders and establishment figures say, ‘Thanks, but no thanks, we will take it from here,’" added an Iowa Republican. “Republicans often complain about the Democrats’ use of superdelegates, [but] what may transpire in Cleveland could be even worse and give new meaning to the ‘Mistake by the Lake.’”
Another Iowa Republican, citing the initially large field of candidates, said Trump shouldn’t be penalized because so many candidates were splitting the delegates.
“We had 17 candidates vying for the nomination,” said an Iowa Republican. “One of them will have a plurality of delegates and should be rewarded for getting there. I may not like it … but awarding Trump the nomination, while difficult, will avoid the complete woodchipper the party will go through if someone else is our nominee.”
Others punted on the question — preferring to wait to see how far short of 1,237 Trump falls, and what his chances are in the general election.
“It depends,” said a Virginia Republican. “How close is Trump to a majority? What do the head-to-head Trump vs. Hillary polls look like at the time of the convention? There are too many variables to know whether convention delegates should nominate Trump if he falls short of a majority at the convention.”
Democrats: Clinton would run stronger versus Trump than Sanders
Democrats would rather have Hillary Clinton as their standard-bearer against Trump than Bernie Sanders.
Asked which candidate would be stronger against Trump, 9-in-10 Democratic insiders picked Clinton despite public polls which consistently show Sanders leading Trump and other Republicans by larger margins.
Insiders say Sanders, a self-described Democratic socialist, has a soft underbelly that would be vulnerable to GOP attacks.
“Sanders supporters might be living in the fantasy world where he's a stronger general election candidate, but the man hasn't had a dime spent directly attacking him,” said a Nevada Democrat. “He's soft and undefined to the broader electorate. Advantage Hillary in a general election.”
“As we approach November, the country will get more serious about this election,” added a Florida Democrat. “And in a choice between substance and flash, substance will win.”
And a North Carolina Democrat cited Clinton’s experience — and the eventual comparison with Trump.
“Democrats need a candidate that reminds voters that Donald Trump is unprepared and unfit for office,” the North Carolina Democrat said. “She is the most prepared candidate to ever seek this office and the contrast between her and Trump will be overwhelming.”
“Just imagine one or the other sitting across the table from Putin, consoling the victims of an Oklahoma City-type bombing or negotiating the Republicans in Congress,” a New Hampshire Democrat added. “Enough said.”
Among the 10 percent of insiders who said Sanders would make the better general-election candidate, most cited Clinton’s low favorability ratings and the scandals that have dogged her since the 1990s.
“Clinton's baggage is too far reaching,” said a Nevada Democrat. “The Republican onslaught will be deadly.”
“Hillary has serious liabilities and will continue to divide the electorate,” added a New Hampshire Democrat.
And while many Democrats were confident that Clinton would dispatch Trump in the general election, others contended that anything can happen in an unpredictable year like this one.
“In an anti-establishment year, there's a case to be made for fighting fire with fire,” said a New Hampshire Democrat. “Ask Jeb Bush and more than a dozen others about Trump's unexpected political prowess.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/insiders-to-trump-no-majority-no-nomination-221219
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